THE UKRAINIAN PROBLEM AND US

Overshadowed by the Malaysian airline disaster,  other world events were continuing to escalate and threaten a peaceful future--maybe even world war 3.  While we were riveted to the search for that airplane, Mr. Putin was stealthily, but assuredly moving towards overtaking Crimea , the little
peninsula off the Ukraine. Despite threat of economic sanctions by Obama and others in the European community, he has now done exactly that, flexing his muscular might and sticking his finger in the face of those who claim he has broken international law. This is true.  In 1994, Crimea and the Ukraine, were promised protection against losing their sovereign status, by the United States, Nato, and the U.N. if they discontinued their nuclear weapons program.  But Mr. Putin apparently doesn't see it that way---that was then, this is now, and he plays by different rules-----or none at all. This man comes from a whole different ideology, a pre-Prestroika, cold war Russia.  Rules? Whose rules? He learned his from the KGB; and proud overseer of the Olympic games, nice suit and smile aside, who says he's changed?

So how does all of this affect us way over here?  Depends on how you look at the ever changing global picture puzzle. Here's one way:  Russia has lots of oil, which runs through Ukraine and that they export to service much of Europe.  They are also the largest country in the world, connected geographically with Europe, yet allied with Iran and other unfriendly nations,  capable of nuclear war,  and therefore one of our biggest geo-political threats. Sound familiar? Mitt Romney spoke similar words to President Obama, during one of the last presidential debates--and was roundly mocked by Obama for thinking in such" old fashioned, cold war" terms.  Funny how mockery can become irony, and can catch up with those who speak so cavalierly from their own untested perspective.

But Obama holds to his belief that we ought not be operating with cold war thinking and seek first to negotiate, carry a soft stick,  and then move only if we have the support of our allies. He even sent Hillary Clinton to Russia shortly after taking office with a cute little box and re-set button to show our new, more loving attitude.  Putin smiled and accepted this quaint gift, but one can only imagine what he was thinking---push button diplomacy, or pushover president?

Obama, glacially slow to respond, has finally punished with economic penalties to a few key financial officials in Russia, and threatens more sanctions if Putin continued his march into the Ukraine, which he has, sending 40,000 troops.  He has also suspended Russia from the G-8 summit of world leaders.  It is doubtful that Putin will be very intimidated by these small measures, and even more doubtful that Obama will do much more.  It is too little, too late, for negotiation, and Putin will do whatever he wishes, quite unbothered and probably emboldened by what we do---or rather don't do.

Having said all that, there is the other side of the argument that goes thus: Putin has the right to do whatever he wishes with Crimea and the Ukraine---all originally part of Russia, and who are we to boss him around? Bossiness is exactly not what Obama wants to project on the international stage. After all,  Putin is the President of Russia, everybody breaks rules, and we don't want to make him too angry---best to keep your potential enemies close.  Problem with that enlightened  thinking is that Putin and his power grabs pose an economic and security threat not only to Europe, but us as well, intertwined as we all are in today's shrinking world.

It has been said by some and most defensively by Putin, that he is merely trying to strengthen the mother country, or "nationalize" everybody into a united mind set, and his recent speech to the EU in Brussels would reflect those feelings. Taking this concept further,  it is well known that nationalism can lead to ethnic nationalism, also reflected in Putin's speech,  referring affectionately to ethnic Russians as "Russkiis", setting them apart from the more generic, all inclusive term, " Russians". Stating the historical obvious, this can then lead to dangerous and twisted incentives for atrocities committed in the name of preserving a country's strength and superiority--and reminiscent of Germany and Hitler. Is that what Putin is thinking, or have we vilified him for our own purposes, misconstruing patriotism for power grabbing?

Enlightened thinking aside, and looking at the evidence, Putin is an outlier, a rogue among other major world leaders ---he does not play well with others, and we should not expect differently, or design our approach to him as though he will suddenly change and respond to our way of thinking. And some would ask, why should he? It is Obama's burden to respond to that question---and ours to ponder. Nobody is advising or wishing for military involvement but if it's true that all international power vacuums attract other hungry powers, then dare we dismiss this current move by Putin, as political posturing, and none of our business?  Perhaps, unless we consider it our business to survive, thrive, and remain the most powerful nation among nations. Too greedy? Ask the residents of  the Ukraine--too late for Crimea.

But what is President Obama to do now? It appears there is very little he can do to scare Putin---the train has left the station, and Crimea is a done deal. Putin has moved his troops along the border of Ukraine, as if to say, "We're here, and  we're in charge now." But wait---what a difference a day makes! As this blog goes to print, it looks like Putin may have blinked---yesterday, in a phone call to Obama, he said he was pulling 1% of his troops out of Ukraine.  That's not much, yet it's something---but hold on.  If this situation were a chess game, you'd be wondering if we were winning or simply being set up for further aggression. As of now, there is no evidence that any troops are being removed from Ukraine.

Obama's strategy of "leading from behind" has not been viewed as successful or admirable.  We have
watched on the sidelines as Egypt, Libya, and Syria have lost their bids to become
more free and democratic. Red lines have been drawn and crossed, penalties threatened and slowly meted out, but our actions seem reluctant, weak, and too late to be very effective. History may prove differently, but if  the past is any guide, we are losing our grip and our respect as the world's leader.  Peace through power may not appeal to everyone's sensibilities, but Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran wait in the wings to take our place--- they march to a different beat, and their idea of enlightened thinking is to take us down, forget the peace part.

Ukraine and us?  Keep an eye on it---it's a vital piece of a puzzle called the new world order---or disorder. If we stand down on this one, Katie bar the door.  It may not be the Russians who are coming, but anybody else who observes the splintering of our once sturdy resolve to keep our promises and the peace.